The war stalled yet again.Īs the war heads into its second spring and the weather turns, both sides will vie for the strategic initiative once again. Why not? Because we had left the Ukrainians requests unfulfilled, they lacked the stockpiles of ammunition, equipment, and weaponry they would need to pursue the advantages they had gained. With the cold weather setting in and Russia having lost initiative, the Ukrainians were well-positioned for a winter offensive. Ukraine’s successful counter-offensive made the most pressing case yet that the war could be won. Armed with long-range artillery systems like HIMARS, Ukraine launched a counter-offensive in the south and the east, liberating over six thousand square kilometers of land from a Russian army that appeared confused and exhausted. This corresponded with Russia withdrawing its forces from Kyiv as the war concentrated in the east.īy September, Ukraine had at last seized the initiative from the Russians. Slowly, however, military aid began to arrive in Ukraine throughout that summer. We feared that provoking Putin would result in either a Russian national mobilization or use of a nuclear weapon. and NATO proved reluctant to arm Ukraine to capacity. Even as the Russian invasion stalled, the U.S. In those early weeks of the war, it was largely assumed that Russia still possessed the initiative despite their invasion progressing slower than planned.
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